Nigel Farage’s latest venture might have secured European success, but could the party do well in a General Election? Sam Brooke reports.
THE Brexit Party has certainly made an impact on Britain’s political landscape in the short time it has existed.
Ever since its impressive result at the European elections in May, when it won 29 of the UK’s 73 seats, it has hardly kept out of the headlines.
That, of course, is mainly due to loudmouth leader Nigel Farage, who might as well have his own desk on Question Time next to Fiona Bruce.
Love them or loathe them, it is impossible to ignore the remarkable political impact the party is having, especially in regard to the Conservative party.
When both prospective Prime Ministers have said they will ensure the UK leaves the EU by Halloween, even risking a no-deal Brexit and a recession to do so, you know they have been well and truly rattled by Mr Farage and Co.
Considering the Brexit Party is technically a private company with no members or manifesto, it is almost unbelievable they are so popular despite articulating no policies except “We want Brexit” and Mr Farage’s own desire to privatise the NHS.
But that is the power of a simple message – not only is it easy to remember, but voters can project their own policies onto the party.
Just look at the line-up of MEPs the Brexit Party boasts. They come from all different parties and backgrounds, though we know little about how and why they were selected.
The party’s protest on Tuesday, when Brexit MEPs joined hands and turned their back on the European Parliament as its anthem was played, shows how unified this group is compared to other parties rife with infighting.
And yes, to address the elephant in the room: the fact that Brexit Party MEPs constantly criticise the EU while at the same time happily taking their cool £80,000 salaries is very hypocritical, especially considering Mr Farage has a history of not turning up.
But then again, who among us would turn that down? I was tempted to run for office in May just so I could get on the housing ladder.
In all seriousness, it would be interesting to see whether the Brexit Party take the same approach if a General Election occurs – something the Conservatives will do their best to stop.
Britons have been historically apathetic towards European elections. As momentous as the results in May were, only 37 per cent of voters actually took part.
That is less than half of the 68.8 per cent who voted in the 2017 General Election, which yielded a much better result for Labour than the European elections did.
European elections have historically also produced more right-wing results than General Elections.
Labour may have ruled the UK from 1997 to 2010, but in no European elections in that period did they finish first.
And this is New Labour we are talking about.
Maybe that is due to the EU’s fairer voting system, which is much more democratic than the UK’s as each party gets seats roughly proportionate to the number of votes, but that is a topic for another time.
The Brexit Party will likely fight a General Election. The Peterborough by-election was their statement of intent, giving Labour a run for their money and finishing comfortably in second.
But Ukip, even when they were at their peak with Farage as leader, always faltered at General Elections, so the Brexit Party would really have to pull it out of the bag to get more than a few seats.
Producing a manifesto next time around would certainly be a good start for them.
But it is interesting to see how the voter base of Eurosceptic parties has changed over the years.
Ukip often did best in the working-class, northern heartlands where Labour was historically strong. But now it seems the Brexit Party are at their strongest in southern, Conservative-voting constituencies.
The comprehensive Best for Britain poll predicted last month that four Tory MPs in Sussex alone would lose their seats to the Brexit Party.
It seems the Lib Dems are more of a threat to Labour, as Jeremy Corbyn has endorsed a second referendum.
In many ways, the rising popularity of the Brexit Party on the right and the Lib Dems in the centre is similar to what happened in France, where the far-right Marine Le Pen and centrist Emanuel Macron dismantled the two-party system.
But the only way that could be mirrored in the UK would be if both main parties collapsed completely, which does not look likely thanks to our voting system.
Mr Farage will need to be much clearer on his party’s positions if they hope to achieve a fraction of that.
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