Blair the beleaguered

He had just swept to power with a huge majority in the General Election. The mood of Brighton and across Britain was for him to succeed.

Now a beleaguered Mr Blair is back in Brighton and some people are calling for an abdication.

The fuel crisis, the Bernie Eccleston affair and the saga of the Millennium Dome have all hit Labour hard. For the first time in eight years the Tories are ahead in the polls.

Political pundits are saying last week was the worst in the life of the Labour Government. They must have said it a dozen times before. The difference this time is that it was true.

Last month, everything looked fine for Tony Blair as he returned looking tanned and relaxed from his foreign holidays in France and Italy.

But a few fuel protesters no one had anticipated brought Britain to a halt within days. What's more they were backed by four out of five Britons, an approval rating Labour never achieved at the zenith of its popularity.

As Tony Blair looks out to sea from his luxury hotel fortress within the security zone, he may be relieved not to see that rare bird on the horizon, the stormy petrol.

But if he gazes to the left or the right, there is trouble. Tories are making trouble by calling for the resignation of Chancellor Gordon Brown while rebellious Clare Short has broken ranks with the Cabinet by saying the Dome is a waste of cash.

Meanwhile the sort of people New Labour had swept under the carpet, such Tony Benn and Jeremy Corbyn, are re-emerging to say the Government is not sufficiently Socialist.

For a politician such as Tony Blair, who rose without trace, sustained criticism and unpopularity is new.

He is not battle-hardened in the way that previous Labour leaders such as Harold Wilson and Jim Callaghan were. Good in a prepared speech or photo opportunity with the spin doctors hovering close by, Mr Blair is less accustomed to angry demonstrations against him. There will be plenty of those this week.

The Countryside Alliance intends to keep up a continuous and well-organised protest. Anarchists, by their very nature less likely to disclose their intentions, may yet descend to repeat their effective action earlier this year at Parliament Square.

Farmers may drive into Brighton causing mayhem with their tractors. People in favour of fox hunting and those passionately against it will be holding their separate lobbies and protests.

Enraged old age pensioners are planning a big rally today having already staged a lobby at the Brighton Racecourse where Labour gathered yesterday for a pre-conference day at the races.

Hauliers will tell him fuel taxes are too high. Greens will say they should be even higher to protect the environment.

But they won't see much of the Prime Minister. The MI6 bomb blast last week, although minor, has increased security in Brighton to such an extent that he will be rarely seen outside and a special bridge makes it possible for him to enter his hotel from the conference centre without ever seeing the howling mob outside.

Even Margaret Thatcher, at the height of protests against rising unemployment, had to face the public right outside the Brighton Centre as she walked to the aptly-named Napoleon Suite at the Grand Hotel.

There will be sporadic and well-organised forays to meet the people, especially in areas which have benefited from Government largesse, but no public walkabouts this time.

To counter criticism, Mr Blair will wheel out his tried and trusty team to make announcements at the Brighton Centre all this week.

The Chancellor will give more money to pensioners. David Blunkett will be doling out more cash to schools, Jack Straw will again get tough on crime.

Mr Blair himself will give his hour-long peroration on Tuesday in his inimitable and much-parodied preachy style.

Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott, Labour's token Cabinet working man, will mangle syntax and lose verbs in the way only he can manage in a barnstorming, joke-cracking end-of-conference speech.

Finally on Thursday former South African president Nelson Mandela - the political equivalent of the Pope and Mother Theresa rolled in to one - will be wheeled on to the stage of the Brighton Centre in a bid to send everyone home happy.

What does it mean for Brighton? At its worst, traffic jams, delays and security alerts. At its best, more than 20,000 delegates and visitors bringing a £5 million spending boost to the resort.

Every hotel is full and people are staying as far away as Eastbourne. Labour supporters are even letting out their rooms to friendly delegates.

The Royal Albion Hotel has reopened almost two years after a big fire like a phoenix from the ashes.

There's also the tremendous hidden extra of pictures showing Brighton's charms being displayed across Britain and the rest of the world, leading to future holiday bookings.

The Prime Minister and his advisers take tremendous trouble over his speech. He knows that every word and every phrase will be remorselessly analysed by pundits and the press.

He was going to write it a fortnight ago at his leisure but the little local difficulty of Britain being ambushed by the fuel protesters got in the way.

Mr Blair likes to please all of the people all of the time. He's got away with it longer than any politician in modern history.

But as John Major found before him, modern society likes to create heroes and then destroy them, bit by bit and limb by limb.

Neil Kinnock famously slipped in the sea when he was chosen to lead Labour 17 years ago.

Tony Blair will have to walk on water to ensure his political safety at Brighton this week.

Labour will be back in Brighton in 2001. By then a general election will almost certainly have taken place.

Events in the next few days will help to determine whether Tony Blair returns as Prime Minister or as leader of the Opposition.