The majority of City experts believe there will be no rise in interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets to make its monthly decision on Thursday.

But the vote is expected to be close.

Last month the MPC voted by the narrowest possible margin, five to four, to hold the rate at its current level of six per cent, the same level it has been at since February.

The economists at Investec forecast that, although rates are set to rise again soon, they will not do so in October.

They argue that, with inflation and earnings growth still reasonably well under control, there is no need for an immediate hike in rates.

They also point out that, with the Conservative Party conference taking place, it would be "politically gauche" of the MPC, though independent, to go for a rate hike on Thursday.

Philip Shaw, of Investec, said: "All things considered we take the view that the MPC will keep official rates on hold for the eighth straight month at six per cent, though the result looks likely to remain on a knife-edge." However, the Investec analysts also warned that the prospect of higher inflation forecasts being unveiled in November meant that a rate rise could be expected sooner rather than later.

This view was echoed by Maurice Fitzpatrick, of accountants Chantry Vellacott, which uses its own "model" of the economy to forecast moves in interest rates.

Mr Fitzpatrick said: "We are forecasting no change this week but we are predicting at least one and possibly two rate rises this winter.

"This is because the economy is currently operating at around 1.5 per cent above its sustainable capacity."