England need to score first to beat Brazil on Friday, according to a maths expert.
Dr John Haigh, reader in maths and statistics at the University of Sussex, says Sven's men have a more than 60 per cent chance of going on to beat the Brazilians if they hit the net first.
But should England go one down, they have only a one in seven chance of coming from behind to win.
The World Cup's vital statistics have been analysed by Dr Haigh, whose analysis of 52 scoring matches in the tournament so far reveals the team scoring first has gone on to win 32 times, with 14 matches drawn.
On only six occasions has the team conceding first come back to win.
Dr Haigh says in professional football generally, the first scoring team goes on to win 67 per cent of the time.
To date in the World Cup there have been 142 goals in 54 matches, an average of 2.63 per game.
England have scored five goals in four games, while Brazil have scored 13.
Dr Haigh said: "In most football we expect a team to win about two-thirds of the games in which it scores first.
"And if the number of goals in the game is low, the first goal becomes very important.
"England in general are involved in low scoring games while Brazil are involved in high scoring ones."
Dr Haigh, a fan of Huddersfield Town fan, says there is no other key statistic that could help England win the game. Sheer luck would play a big part.
He said: "Chance plays a huge part in football - there is a huge amount of luck in the game."
Dr Haigh's findings appear in the latest issue of Plus internet magazine, which aims to raise the awareness of maths and promote practical mathematics among A-level students.
His article, On the ball, can be found at www.plus.maths.org
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