Only one prediction can safely be made about May's Brighton and Hove City Council elections. The new council will look radically different from the old one.

Many of the leading Labour councillors who have been in power for so long are not standing again.

They include Lynette Gwyn Jones, Jackie Lythell, Andy Durr, Chris Morley, Jean Spray, Harry Steer, Mo Marsh and Betty Walshe.

Others who were considered bright lights for the council's future are also quitting, such as Betsy Brewer, Alison Hermitage, Catherine Shelley and Jacky Harding.

There are also a few retirements on the Tory side, while two of the three Green councillors are not seeking re-election.

On top of all this, there will also be political casualties at the polls as standing councillors are defeated.

In just one ward, Wish, four councillors are chasing two seats. Two of them will be defeated but which two is impossible to say.

This election is the hardest to call in the history of Brighton and Hove for many reasons.

Events far away in Iraq are occupying people's minds, particularly Labour supporters'. Some of those who are against British involvement will feel they cannot support the party at the polls.

But what will they do? Will they abstain, go to the Tories (who also back the war) or try the Liberal Democrats or the Greens?

Will the fact the polls now indicate a majority in support of the war cancel out the doubters?

If coalition forces end the conflict and chemical weapons are found, will that make a difference? And what happens to Labour if the war goes badly?

National and international factors should not make an impact on local polls but they do.

It was largely thanks to Labour's national ascendancy that the party gained control of the new council in 1996 and retained it by a smaller majority three years later.

Those victories were remarkable when it is considered that the old Brighton Council remained resolutely Tory until 1984 and Hove until 1995.

Even as late as 1992, Tories won 13 of the 16 seats in Brighton while Labour was restricted to the two Portslade wards in Hove.

The new council will have only 54 seats compared with the current 78. Some wards remain the same but they will have two councillors instead of three.

Others have been completely reconstructed and it is hard to tell which way many of them will fall.

While it is safe to assume Labour will win Queen's Park and the Tories Rottingdean Coastal, it is anyone's guess who will emerge as the victor in Central Hove or Goldsmid.

Indeed, Hove is seen by many observers as the key to control of the new authority. That is why some of the fiercest political fights will be taking place there.

Brighton and Hove is unusual in having four parties in the council chamber.

Traditionally, the two main parties always slugged it out on the hustings and they are still likely to be dominant in the future.

But the Liberal Democrats have made Brunswick their base and intend to expand to either side.

Greens, stronger in Brighton than almost anywhere else in the country, aim to get votes and seats mainly in the central areas.

Labour, still ahead in the national opinion poll, is relying on its record to secure another term. It is backing many of the bold new projects for the seafront, including the King Alfred and Black Rock.

But not everyone likes the brave new world and Labour is also handicapped by a record rise in council tax.

The Tories are confident they can make gains despite flat opinion poll ratings and have produced a detailed programme for what they say should be a shining city by the sea.

The two smaller parties have produced full manifestoes and hope to make progress. They cannot realistically expect control of the council but they could have a lot of influence if there was no overall control.

One final complicating factor is that this will be the first city council election conducted by postal ballot.

The move is intended to increase turnout. No one knows if that will be achieved but it will change the pattern of campaigning.

To some extent, the contest will be over by late April because most people will have voted by then. In a traditional election, no one votes until polling day.

The reward for the 54 winners will be what should amount almost to a full-time job on less than a full-time allowance.

With that in mind, it's surprising so many want to do it. May the best men and women win but who they will be is anyone's guess.