Here we go again. The season of mists and mellow fruitfulness has turned out once more to be a time of tempests and torrential rain.

Already beach huts have been battered by high tides and there has been flooding caused by blocked drains in many part of Sussex.

There have been two significant storms so far and we are not even mid -way through October, with the rest of the autumn and winter stretching before us.

Naturally, everyone living in areas which suffered from floods last year is worried there could be a repetition.

Is that possible? We were told that last year's weather patterns which produced all the rain were exceptional and of a kind we should not expect to be repeated for maybe 100 or even 200 years.

They were certainly remarkable, for 14 inches of rain fell in October alone, compared with an average of three, and during the winter months parts of Sussex had 50 inches of rain dumped on them which is a normal couple of years' worth.

But the autumn and winter of 2000/1 was only the most remarkable in a series of awful autumns and wild winters during the last 20 years.

The great gale of 1987 was one of the most remarkable weather events of the last century but that was followed by further amazing storms in 1989 and 1990.

We also had the floods which caused chaos in Chichester and the storms that severed Selsey during that time.

Weather patterns appear to be changing as they have over the centuries.

What we do not know is whether the present shift is caused by global warming.

What we do know is that there is a pronounced trend towards warmed, wilder and wetter winters.

The authorities have not stood still since last year but it takes time to make changes in something as fundamental as large-scale flood prevention.

In Chichester, serious flooding was prevented last year by elaborate pumping but the long-term solution of diverting floodwater out of the River Lavant is still under way.

To prevent further flooding at Lewes, drastic measures may be required such as cutting a deeper river channel or putting up flood barriers at the Newhaven end.

Either or these solutions would be extremely expensive and would need careful evaluation to make sure it was cost-effective.

In Brighton, there are plans to put up bunding around Patcham Place fields to stop water flowing down the A23 as it did last year.

But the long-term solution there, which is to improve the capacity of the sewage and drainage system, will be immensely dear and disruptive.

There are some other long-term changes which will have to be put into effect to prevent flooding.

One is not leaving bare earth during the autumn on steeply sloping downland fields such as those overlooking Bevendean in Brighton and in Rottingdean, which reached the record books in 1987 for experiencing the worst mud slide in British history.

There are welcome signs that this message is getting home to farmers, who themselves suffer loss and disruption when their fields fall into the streets.

Another is not to build anywhere in the flood plains of the Sussex rivers.

There are signs that the widespread development of the last few years made a contribution towards the problems experienced over the last few years, particularly with the River Ouse at Uckfield and Lewes.

Significantly, most of the homes which suffered from flooding were modern ones.

We may have to accept that low-lying areas of Sussex are surrendered to the sea as water levels relentlessly rise.

The cost of shoring up Selsey and protecting Pevensey may be too large to be accepted in the long run.

There may have to be more elaborate defences to protect the chalk cliffs in places such as Black Rock and Birling Gap.

It's easy to look at villages, towns and cities most days and think nature has been tamed.

It hasn't, and the next six months in Sussex are likely to prove the point.