Early last year, Beth and I were in America. Alan Greenspan had just made a large cut in America's interest rates. Many were confused.

Was it good news, a welcome help to keep the American economy ahead of its competitors, or did Mr Greenspan know something was afoot?

As it turned out there was big trouble in the camp, worse than almost anybody expected.

The slump in share prices and savings was little to do with the September 11 atrocities.

The world economy has been near recession for the past 18 months.

Last week, Mr Greenspan was back at work with a further half per cent cut in interest rates. There were no cheers and within 48 hours the Dow Jones had fallen back. There is a suspicion that once again he may have early warning of unwelcome news.

What do you think will happen here in the UK? I think we are skating on thin ice. Of course, I am no analyst trained by Merrill Lynch but perhaps that's no handicap.

In the past two years I have taught myself something. I've become a good listener. My job with The Argus enables me to speak to a wide variety of businesses - manufacturers, developers, accountants, directors, managers, receptionists and tea ladies.

What do I hear?

Manufacturers are having a hard time and there's no relief in sight.

Printers are struggling, pagination is down and so are profits. Builders and retailers are doing well. According to government statistics, the property boom continues but local agents are not so sure.

On the face of it, there are lots of jobs but many young people are employed below their capabilities. I think it's going to become more difficult to find a job. Some banks and insurance companies are placing clerical work abroad and there's a rumour that American Express is to follow suit.

There's plenty on the credit side. Sussex is full of talented young people, creating new businesses and bringing with them ideas that have real prospects. Brighton has innovation centres, will soon have a medical school and its media industries are flourishing.

But there are long-term problems. There will be little job security, which will make things difficult for the vulnerable. If the banks start calling in their debts that could mean immense difficulties.

Pensions providers are struggling and many companies are closing their final salary schemes to new employees.

It's all too close to call.