Suffering investors may have to wait 15 years or more until the stock market recovers to its 1999 highs.

The yearly study of long-term investment trends, by ABN Amro bank and the London Business School, estimated there was a 50 per cent probability of the stock market breaking through its all-time high by 2018 and a 50 per cent chance the breakthrough would come later than that.

The market has been on a losing streak for three years in a row, creating the longest bear market since the Second World War.

In 1999, the FT-SE 100 Index hit an all-time closing high of 6,930 but fell to a seven-and-a-half year low of 3,392 last month.

On a global level, the declines during 2000/2002 alone added up to £7.93 trillion (13 trillion US dollars) - or £1,200 (2,000 US dollars) for every man, woman and child on the planet.

ABN Amro said: "Investors should not harbour fantasies of an immediate return to either previous (and, with hindsight, unrealistic) market levels, or to previous high rates of return."

The market would not get back to previous highs smoothly and returns could come in a short burst rather than gently.

ABN said: "In reality, the stock market's recovery will not be smooth. To be sure of getting back to the index's high, investors may have to wait far longer than these estimates or they may be fortunate to participate in an unexpected bull market."

The report also predicted investors had a 38 per cent chance of having a bad year on the market this year and stressed the probability of a poor year was essentially unaffected by the fact markets had already experienced three years of falls.

The gloomy outlook came as a separate survey, released by JPMorgan Fleming, said investor confidence had fallen to its lowest ebb since the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States.

Its investor confidence index stood at 42 points in January, compared with 44 points in September 2001 and 83 this time last year.

Of those questioned, 42 per cent believed the stock market would be lower in six months, with just 22 per cent confident it would have recovered by then.

Some 37 per cent were undecided about what the future held.

Paul Brewster, head of market research at JPMorgan Fleming, said: "The looming threat of war with Iraq is casting a shadow over the markets."