I'm expecting a meteor shower at midnight tonight which is perhaps not too far off the subject of swine flu as one area of blame for influenza was related to viruses disseminated to earth by passing meteors (I remember having to comment on this for the BBC some years ago).

However while I cannot disprove this, it should be worth taking a look provided the skies stay clear. Just left Gibraltar where I was reliably informed by the taxi driver (a profession whose view on life usually reflects reality) that Gibraltar had had three cases of swine flu so far and not a single case in the Ape population occupying the rock.

Now we are back on the boat heading back to UK with the local news from the NHS being that there has been a significant fall in cases over the last week. Such a fall is to be expected and while not sounding too pessimistic, is the lull before the storm (actually that is a bit foreboding being at sea !).

Flu pandemics go through these cyclical patterns - the major pandemic at the end of the First World War killed far more people in the third and fourth stages than it did in the first.

The good news is that the planned production of anti-swine flu vaccine is on schedule and the first doses are likely to be made available to us at the end of August or beginning of September - the bad news is that these are planned for priority groups but no-one yet has defined the priority of priorities...

Half the population is likely to be classed as priority but there is no way that 30 million doses are going to be available from day one. More news in due course (I hope).

If there is anyone reading this who hails from Naples? do please write to the City Council there and tell them to clean the place up! Infections spread more rapidly in areas of poor hygiene. The beautiful palladian buildings are festooned with graffiti and soaked in urine... not a good sign for a city which is the gateway to the Isle of Capri or the ruins of Pompeii.