Generosity towards one’s opponents is uncommon in politics, unless your opponent has recently died when everyone has nothing but positive things to say. A rare example of extraordinary generosity during a lifetime occurred in 1986 when the outgoing Conservative mayor of Brighton, Bob Cristofili, voted for Labour’s Jackie Lythell to become mayor, thereby gifting control of Brighton Borough Council to Labour for the first time in its history. For this Bob was ostracised by his fellow Conservatives.

Are we about to witness another example of extraordinary generosity? The Labour leader of Brighton and Hove City Council, Bella Sankey, has sent an ‘expression of interest’ to the Government proposing a combined authority made up of Brighton and Hove, East Sussex and West Sussex. Bella has not said whether a pan-Sussex structure should be led by a mayor with executive powers – like the metro mayors of London and Greater Manchester, or a regional mayor like in West Yorkshire whose mayor is my former neighbour, Tracy Brabin, who I recruited to the Labour Party.

Why would a pan-Sussex council or executive mayor be such a gift to the Conservatives? Simple. The Conservatives are likely to win any election fought on a pan-Sussex basis. Currently, the only election fought on this basis is for the Police and Crime Commissioner. On each of the four times this election has been held, the Conservative, Katy Bourne, has won with comfortable majorities. In May this year, Katie had a majority of almost 23,000 when she polled 122,495 votes. This was her smallest-ever majority, but in a very bad year for the Conservatives and just two months before their General Election wipeout. In 2021 she won with 65 per cent of the vote.

At the General Election in July, while Labour won six seats in Sussex compared to the Conservatives’ five (the Lib Dems also won five and the Green Party one), the Conservatives polled 233,413 votes compared to Labour’s 219,510. This was, I repeat, a very bad year for the Conservatives. In a straight, first past the post election, where Labour would suffer electorally from being the incumbent government, the Conservatives would be expected to win comfortably, and so too if the election was based on the single-transferable vote system used for the Police and Crime Commissioner elections.

So why on earth would Labour wish to gift such a huge prize, and considerable power, to the Conservatives?

Labour activists might be forgiven for thinking their recent successes in the 2023 elections for the City Council and at the 2024 general election will continue. But they should reflect that the General Election, which saw Labour win a thumping Parliamentary majority, was achieved with just 33 per cent of the vote. The electorate voted against the Conservatives more than for Labour or their weak leader, Sir Kier Starmer. They were the fortunate beneficiaries of the Conservative collapse, in the right place, at the right time.

The success Labour enjoyed in Sussex flattered to deceive. Only one of the Sussex seats it won, Hove and Portslade, has a majority of over 10,000. The Lib Dems have three seats with such majorities and the Greens in Brighton Pavilion have a very healthy majority of over 14,000 votes. The electorate giveth, and the electorate taketh away.

The changing demographics in areas like the two Worthing constituencies and in Hastings should mean Labour holds these seats at the next General Election, but the Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch, if they can see off Reform UK, will regroup and regain some of their recent losses.

A more modest city-region, say from Newhaven through to Worthing, might offer greater prospects for a Labour mayoral candidate, but it will lack the economies of scale that a larger region would bring. There would also be resistance from Lewes and Adur District Councils and from Worthing Borough. There are some in the city who are yet to get over the forced marriage between Brighton and Hove and, before that, the absorption of Portslade into Hove. A Newhaven-Brighton-Hove-Portslade-Shoreham-Worthing region will see resistance to a Brighton and Hove takeover. Because of this, there is no certainty city-region mayoral candidates would come from Brighton and Hove.

Moses led his people through the wilderness for 40 years but did not enter into the Promised Land. Brighton and Hove Labour might lead the wider region into a bright new future but not win the ultimate prize, unless, of course, the control-freaks in the regional and national Labour Party fix the selection of the candidate as they have become accustomed to doing.

Andy Winter is a former councillor who worked in social care and homelessness services for 40 years