The Conservatives could lose Sussex strongholds at General Election

YouGov’s first MRP projection shows several blue strongholds could change colour when voters head to the polls on July 4.

Before Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called the surprise election in May and Parliament was dissolved, the Conservatives held Chichester, Bognor Regis and Littlehampton, Arundel and South Downs, Horsham, Crawley, East Grinstead and Uckfield, Mid Sussex, Sussex Weald, Bexhill and Battle, Hastings and Rye, Eastbourne, Lewes, East Worthing and Shoreham and West Worthing.

Meanwhile, Labour held Brighton Kemptown and Hove and Portslade and the Greens held Brighton Pavilion.

It could be a different picture on July 5 and certain battlegrounds in Sussex will be crucial in the fight for Number 10.

Labour has set its sights on gaining Crawley, Hastings and Rye, Worthing West and East Worthing and Shoreham.

The Liberal Democrats are eyeing up Lewes, Eastbourne and Chichester.

But which seats are predicted to change hands?

East Worthing and Shoreham

Bolstered by the party's historic win of Adur District Council in May, Labour hopes to add the long-time Tory seat of East Worthing and Shoreham to its arsenal.

Labour councillors with Labour prospective parliamentary candidate Tom Rutland after winning a majority to gain control of Adur District Council (Image: The Argus)

The seat has been held since 1997 by Conservative Tim Loughton, who earlier this year announced he would be standing down.

Tom Rutland hopes to be the first Labour MP to be elected in the constituency and beat new Conservative candidate Leila Williams.

Keir Starmer chose Lancing Parish Hall to give his first major speech of Labour’s election campaign.

Sir Keir Starmer at Lancing Parish Hall (Image: PA)

He told the packed hall that he “detects a yearning for change" in the county.

During his bank holiday visit, he also spent time with parliamentary candidate for Brighton Pavilion Tom Gray.

YouGov predicts Labour will gain 52 per cent of the vote in East Worthing and Shoreham and the Conservatives 28 per cent.

Worthing West

YouGov projects a closer battle between Labour and the Conservatives in neighbouring Worthing West.

Leader of Worthing Borough Council Beccy Cooper is hoping to unseat Conservative Sir Peter Bottomley, who has been the MP since the constituency's creation in 1997.

Sir Peter Bottomley (Image: PA)

He was also Father of the House of Commons.

Sir Peter has been an MP for more than six decades and spent almost all his career as an MP on the back benches, except for a six-year stint as a minister in the government of Margaret Thatcher.

Cllr Cooper made history in 2017 when she became the first Labour councillor in Worthing for more than 40 years.

Leader of Worthing Borough Council Beccy Cooper (Image: The Argus)

The MRP predicts Labour will have 41 per cent of the vote and the Conservatives 34 per cent.

Crawley

It was at the Siemens Three Bridges Traincare Facility in Crawley in February that Sir Keir said Labour was committed to tackling the “awful problem” of homelessness in Sussex and will fight for every vote in the county.

Sir Keir Starmer, centre, and shadow work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall, right, during a visit to Siemens Traincare in Three Bridges, Crawley (Image: PA)

Crawley and Hastings and Rye have acted as bellwethers for how the country will vote since 1983, with both being key targets for Labour to get the keys to Number 10.

Zack Ali will be taking up the mantle left by former Conservative MP Henry Smith, who held Crawley since 2010.

Mr Ali will be going up against Crawley Borough Council’s former leader Peter Lamb who is currently a Labour councillor for Northgate and West Green.

Mr Lamb also stood for election in 2019.

At the last election in December 2019, Mr Smith secured 54.2 per cent of the vote, while Mr Lamb won 37.4 per cent.

YouGov’s MRP projections predict this time Labour will achieve 44 per cent of the vote while the Conservatives will get 30 per cent.

Hastings and Rye

Home to just over 70,000 voters, the constituency has been a bellwether seat for 40 years, predicting which party entered Downing Street at every election since it was created in 1983.

At the last General Election Sally-Ann Hart, who is standing again, was elected as the Conservative MP for Hastings and Rye, once held by former home secretary Amber Rudd, with a majority of just over 4,000 votes.

Sally-Ann Hart is standing for re-election in Hastings and Rye (Image: The Argus)

She will go head to head with Labour’s Helen Dollimore, who was born in East Sussex and was a volunteer vaccinator during lockdown.

The MRP projects Labour will take the seat from the Conservatives with 50 per cent of the vote compared with a projected 29 per cent for the Tories.

Chichester

YouGov predicts Conservative Gillian Keegan could lose her seat to the Liberal Democrats with a vote share of 32 per cent compared with 37 per cent respectively.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey and Liberal Democrat parliamentary candidate Jess Brown-Fuller during his visit to Birdham Pool Marina, Chichester (Image: PA)

Ms Keegan, who has also served as education secretary and is standing for re-election, won the seat in 2017 with 60 per cent of the vote.

In 2019, she kept her seat with 57.8 per cent of the vote.

Chichester, which is one of the UK’s oldest constituencies, has long been a Conservative stronghold and has been held by the party continuously since 1924.

Gillian Keegan could lose her Chichester seat (Image: PA)

But it seems the Lib Dems have a strong chance of gaining the seat, particularly after they won control of the city’s council in the local elections in May 2023.

The party’s leader Sir Ed Davey paid a visit to the area on the campaign trail to announce plans to abolish Ofwat and introduce a new water regulator to tackle the sewage crisis.

While at Birdham Pool Marina, he met Lib Dem parliamentary candidate Jess Brown-Fuller, who graduated from Chichester University and has lived in the area since the 1990s.

Lewes

Lewes has been held by Conservative Maria Caulfield since 2015 following the defeat of Liberal Democrat MP Norman Baker.

Home to just over 75,000 people, boundary changes now mean the constituency stretches from Ditchling Beacon to Stone Cross.

Liberal Democrat candidate James MacCleary hopes to oust Ms Caulfield, who also served as a health minister.

James MacCleary is hoping to become Lewes's first Lib Dem MP since 2015 (Image: Liberal Democrats)

Mr MacCleary is currently Lewes district councillor for Newhaven South and county councillor for Newhaven and Bishopstone.

Ms Caulfield was re-elected with a vote share of 47.9 per in 2019.

Maria Caulfield could be ousted by the Liberal Democrats (Image: The Argus)

The MRP predicts the Lib Dems could take the seat with a landslide 51 per cent of the vote.

It predicts the Conservatives will get 26 per cent.

Eastbourne

Eastbourne is another blue wall target seat for the Lib Dems.

The party came second behind Conservative MP Caroline Ansell, who is standing for re-election, by more than 4,000 votes in 2019.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey (right) having a laugh with Lib Dem candidate for Eastbourne, Josh Babarinde (Image: PA)

Sir Ed Davey visited the town shortly after the election was called to meet his party’s Eastbourne candidate Josh Babarinde OBE.

Before becoming a parliamentary candidate, Mr Babarinde was a councillor in Hampden Park, Eastbourne, and ran a social enterprise named Cracked It which employed ex-offenders and at-risk youths to repair smartphones.

The seat has been won by both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats since its creation in 1885.

YouGov’s MRP projection predicts the Lib Dems will win the seat with a massive 54  per cent share of the vote.

The Conservatives are expected to win 21 per cent.

How did YouGov make the predictions?

The MRP projection has not taken into consideration individual candidates.

YouGov’s estimated seat projections are based on modelled responses from 53,334 adults in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland.

Participants were asked "thinking specifically about your own constituency, and imagining that these were the political parties standing, which party do you intend to vote for in the July 4, 2024, UK general election?".