Chichester MP Gillian Keegan forecast to lose seat at election

A YouGov survey of 14,000 has suggested the Conservatives could lose almost 200 seats when voters go to the polls late this year, with Labour expected to win a 120-seat majority in the House of Commons.

Ms Keegan, MP for Chichester, is among those forecast to lose their seats, with the Liberal Democrats expected to win the constituency for the first time since 1923.

Conservative MP for Horsham Jeremy Quin is also predicted to lose his seat to the Liberal Democrats, despite securing a 21,000 vote majority at the last election.

Among the other constituencies in Sussex, Labour is expected to gain both Worthing seats, Crawley and Hastings and Rye from the Conservatives, while the Liberal Democrats is likely win in Lewes and Eastbourne.

Brighton Pavilion is forecast to be held by the Green Party, according to the YouGov poll, commissioned by the Daily Telegraph.

Should the result be played out at a general election, the extent of the Conservatives’ defeat would be the biggest collapse in support for a governing party since 1906.

Jess Brown-Fuller, the Liberal Democrat candidate for the Chichester constituency, said; “Chichester residents have the opportunity to make political history at the next election and elect an MP that has their feet in the community and will put Chichester first.

“Lifelong Conservative voters are looking for a new political home and are putting their faith in me, as well as naturally Labour and Green voters who are lending us their vote to ensure a win.

“Although this poll is a positive indicator, we will not show complacency and will continue working hard until residents have the opportunity to go to the polls later this year.”

Jess Brown-Fuller is hoping to become the first non-Tory MP for Chichester in over 100 years (Image: Liberal Democrats)

Gillian Keegan, who is running for re-election, said: “From fighting for increased investment in our local NHS, including the new school of nursing and allied health, to my campaign to stop sewage spills in the harbour and increase transparency of water companies, my priority has always been to create meaningful change for Chichester and champion the issues that matter to local people.

“I look forward to continuing this work in 2024 and beyond and fighting the next general election on a positive record of delivering for the people of Chichester.”

• READ MORE: Lib Dems in battle to oust education secretary Gillian Keegan at next election

It comes as election forecaster Electoral Calculus predicts Labour is within 3,000 votes of winning Brighton Pavilion, the only Green seat in Westminster.

The website forecast a win for the Green Party at the general election in the seat by just 2,901 votes, a far cry from the almost 20,000 vote majority secured by Caroline Lucas at the last general election.

Tom Gray, Labour’s candidate for Brighton Pavilion at the general election, said: “I am not a great believer in polls but this appears to put us level within the margin of error, when we haven’t had a candidate or launched our local campaign. I am hugely excited about getting started.”

Sian Berry, who was selected as the Green Party’s candidate for the constituency last summer, said: “Predicting individual constituencies from a month of national polling is notoriously difficult but it is always encouraging to see Green wins being forecast.

“I’ll continue to focus on speaking with every citizen I can right across Brighton Pavilion, listening, working hard and earning their trust to keep Brighton Green."