Greens will lose Brighton seat at next election, poll claims

According to a poll for Best for Britain, Brighton Pavilion would elect a Labour MP for the first time since 2010 if an election was held tomorrow.

The poll put Labour support in the constituency at 32.7 per cent, up almost 10 per cent from their result in the last general election.

However, support for the Greens is forecast to crater; from 57.2 per cent at the 2019 election to just 28.4 per cent - a staggering 28.8 per cent drop.

Should such a result take place at the next election, expected to take place next autumn, it would amount to a 19.4 per cent swing from the Greens to Labour.

The bruising poll for the Greens comes just over a month after the party lost 13 councillors on Brighton and Hove City Council, along with control of the council.

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The polling, performed by Focaldata and based on new constituency boundaries for the next election, was conducted in late April and early May - before the announcement by Caroline Lucas that she would not stand for re-election.

Outside of Brighton, Labour would also make gains across parts of Sussex, including in Worthing, Bognor, Crawley and Hastings.

How would Sussex vote in the next general election?

• Arundel and South Downs: Conservative (hold) - 7.9 per cent majority
• Bexhill and Battle: Conservative (hold) - 0.7 per cent majority
• Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: Labour (gain) - 1.3 per cent majority
• Brighton Kemptown: Labour (hold) - 26.1 per cent majority
• Brighton Pavilion: Labour (gain) - 4.2 per cent majority
• Chichester: Conservative (hold) - 0.9 per cent majority
• Crawley: Labour (gain) - 14.7 per cent majority
• Eastbourne: Labour (gain) - 2.3 per cent majority
• East Grinstead and Uckfield: Conservative (new seat) - 5.8 per cent majority
• East Worthing and Shoreham: Labour (gain) - 14.8 per cent majority
• Hastings and Rye: Labour (gain) - 17.8 per cent majority
• Horsham: Conservative (hold) - 3.2 per cent majority
• Hove and Portslade: Labour (hold) - 30.9 per cent majority
• Lewes: Conservative (hold) - 3.5 per cent majority
• Mid Sussex: Labour (gain) - 0.2 per cent majority
• Sussex Weald: Conservative (hold) - 6.0 per cent majority
• Worthing West: Labour (gain) - 7.3 per cent majority

In an extremely close forecast, Labour are projected to win the seat of Mid Sussex in the poll, a seat which has always voted Conservative since it was created in 1974.

However, the poll predicts a disappointing result for the Liberal Democrats - falling short of victory in Maria Caulfield’s seat of Lewes and placing third in Eastbourne, where Labour is forecast to win for the first time ever.

Across the country, Labour was predicted to win a total of 470 seats, with the Conservatives far behind on 129.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) were forecast to win 26 seats, with the Liberal Democrats with just five seats and one for Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru.