Lewes MP Maria Caulfield predicted to lose seat at next election

Latest polling shows Labour is on course to gain seats in Crawley, Hastings and Rye and East Worthing and Shoreham, with the Liberal Democrats set to win Lewes, all seats currently held by Tory MPs.

However, the Liberal Democrats look set to miss out on retaking Eastbourne by just over one per cent of the vote.

The prediction has been published by Electoral Calculus, which was the most accurate pre-poll predictor of the last general election in 2019.

Tim Loughton, the former chairman of the Home Affairs Select Committee, would see his majority in East Worthing and Shoreham swept away by a more than nine per cent swing to Labour if an election was held tomorrow.

Brighton and Hove's two Labour MPs, Lloyd Russell-Moyle and Peter Kyle, and Green MP Caroline Lucas are all expected to keep their seats by a comfortable margin.

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Ms Caulfield rejected the projection and said: "According to polls, I was never going to win the seat of Lewes and was predicted to lose it at every general election since.

"My priority is helping the people across Seaford, Lewes, Newhaven and Polegate and so I don't have time to worry about the latest polls.

"The only poll that matters is an election."

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Nationally, Electoral Calculus gives Labour an 81 per cent chance of being the largest party at the next election and the party is forecast to be nine seats short of an overall majority.

The projections also show the Conservatives could lose more than 120 seats across the country and that Prime Minister Boris Johnson could lose his own seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip to Labour when voters next go to the polls.

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However, results could end up being different as new boundary changes to constituencies are expected to be in place by the time of the next general election.

Voters across the country are set to go to the polls again in May 2024, with local elections taking place in Worthing, Crawley and Hastings in three months' time.

Tim Loughton, as well as Hastings MP Sally-Ann Hart and Crawley MP Henry Smith, were all contacted for comment.

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