Coronavirus: Which tier Brighton and Hove is likely to be in

Areas will be placed in Tier 1, medium risk, Tier 2, high risk, or Tier 3, very high risk, depending on several factors relating to how they are coping with Covid-19.

The factors that will be taken into account are reported to be the number of cases, R number, number of cases among over 60s, seven-day rolling infection rate and potential pressure on the NHS in each area.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that more areas than before will be placed in Tier 2 and Tier 3

The tier for Brighton and Hove has not yet been announced but it is likely, based on current data relating to these factors, the city will be in Tier 1 or Tier 2.

It is also not yet known how the UK will be broken down into different areas within the updated method of regionalised restrictions.

All parts of of Sussex were placed in Tier 1, medium risk, before lockdown.

In the week leading up to October 30 (the most recent complete figures available on November 5 when the UK entered national lockdown) there were 408 Covid-19 cases confirmed in Brighton and Hove.

• READ MORE: This is when Brighton will find out which tier it is in 

This gave the city a weekly coronavirus rate of 140 new cases per 100,000.

The highest weekly coronavirus rate in Brighton and Hove during the second national lockdown was recorded in the seven days leading up to November 12, when it reached 181.1 cases per 100,000 population.

But this figure has since dropped.

The coronavirus rates in Brighton and Hove, England and the South East

In the week leading up to November 19, the most recent complete data currently available, there were 301 new cases reported.

This gives the city a weekly coronavirus rate of 103.5 new cases per 100,000, according to the Office for National Statistics.

This figure is now lower than when it entered lockdown in Tier 1, and means the city now has the 276th lowest weekly coronavirus rate of the 315 local authority areas in England to submit data.

As a result, many believe the city will return to the lowest tier on December 2.

• READ MORE: The weekly coronavirus rates in all areas of England (and how the Brighton and Sussex rates compare

But Boris Johnson has said that more areas will be placed in Tier 2 and Tier 3 when this second national lockdown ends in an attempt to drive down the national coronavirus infection rate and quash any outbreaks.

The number of new cases among over 60s is also reported to be a factor in deciding which tier areas are placed into.

The rate of infection in this age range hit a peak in Brighton and Hove during the second national lockdown, reaching a rate of 146.2 new cases per 100,000 people in the week leading up to November 16.

However, this has since dropped to 96.6 for the seven days leading up to November 19.

The coronavirus rates in Brighton and Hove for each age range

The R number will also be used to decide each area's tier.

This is the number of people that one infected person will pass on a virus to, on average.

The R number for the UK is currently between 1.0 and 1.1, with Boris Johnson stating his desire to drive the figure below one.

The latest government data says the R number in the South East is slightly above the UK average, currently standing at between 1.1 and 1.3.

• READ MORE: Up to three households allowed to meet over Christmas under new UK deal

"Estimates for R and growth rates are shown as a range, and the true values are likely to lie within this range," the government website states.

Dr Mike Tildesley, a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) which advises the government, said he expected a lot of areas of England to emerge from lockdown into the highest tier as it was the best way of reducing the R value – the reproduction rate of the virus – to below one.

He told BBC Breakfast: “It may be initially we might see slightly more severe tiers but then when we start to see the effect of the lockdown, one to two weeks after the lockdown finishes on December 2, we might see some regions stepwise dropping down the tiers.”

An explanation of the new tier system Credit: PA graphics

But health secretary Matt Hancock has said that, after several months of the new restrictions, he hopes the roll-out of a vaccine will signal that life could go back to “normal” by Easter, on April 4 next year.

He also suggested that some habits encouraged during the pandemic, such as regular hand-washing, would continue.

• READ MORE: Two Sussex coronavirus deaths and 142 new cases recorded

Mr Hancock told a joint session of the Health and Social Care Committee and Science and Technology Committee that the “damaging social distancing interventions” could be lifted after Easter.