Coronavirus: Sussex hospitals could be overwhelmed

The grim predictions revealed the number of people in hospital could burn through current capacity in the South East by mid-November with surge capacity – including Nightingale beds – being overrun by the end of the month.

Based on NHS England modelling, the predictions sent shockwaves through the government, which had been trying to stave off a national lockdown.

There is a grim forecast for December, with hospitals still struggling to cope despite a number of proposed measures.

READ MORE: Latest coronavirus cases in Brighton and Sussex

It says hospitals would exceed capacity at the beginning of December despite cancelling non-urgent treatments.

And, at the end of December it would become overwhelmed, even if it slashed non-Covid bed occupancy by 50 per cent.

The modelling found South East hospitals would perform better than some areas – namely the North West, South West and Midlands – but would not fare as well as others, including London and the East of England.

The report said: “Even surge capacity is burnt through in several regions in three to four weeks.

“On the current trajectory the NHS will not be able to accept any more patients by Christmas week.

“The South West and Midlands are first to run out of capacity through very different levels of prevalence given current occupancy rates.

“It takes [about] three weeks for NPI (non-pharmaceutical intervention) changes to have any impact on hospital admission, the window to act is now for the majority of the country.”

Brighton and Sussex University Hospitals Trust, which runs the Royal Sussex County Hospital, was contacted for comment.

Meanwhile, new figures released by the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre, reveal 42 people have been admitted into ICU in the South East this fortnight.

This comes as Boris Johnson has said there could be twice as many deaths over the winter in comparison with the first wave.

Making a statement on the new lockdown measures for England in the Commons, the Prime Minister told MPs: “While the prevalence of the virus is worse in parts of the North, the doubling time in the South East and the Midlands is now faster than in the North West.

“Even in the South West, where incidence remains low, current projections mean they will start to run out of hospital capacity in a matter of weeks.

“And the modelling presented by our scientists suggests that without action we could see up to twice as many deaths over the winter as we saw in the first wave.”

Boris Johnson said there was no option but to introduce national restrictions.

He said: “Faced with these latest figures, there is no alternative but to take further action at a national level.

“I believe it was right to try every possible option to get this virus under control at a local level with strong local action and strong local leadership.

“And I reject any suggestion that we are somehow slower in taking measures than our European friends and partners.

“In fact we’re moving to national measures when the rate both of death and infections for instance is lower than they were in France.”

Boris Johnson warned of the “existential threat” to the NHS as a result of Covid-19.

He told MPs: “Let me spell out the medical and moral disaster we face. If we allow our health system to be overwhelmed, exactly as the data now suggests, then that would not only be a disaster for thousands of Covid patients, because their survival rates would fall, we would also reach a point where the NHS was no longer there for everyone.

“The sick would be turned away because there was no room in our hospitals. That sacred principle of care for anyone who needs it, whoever they are and wherever, whenever they need it, could be broken for the first time in our lives.

“Doctors and nurses could be forced to choose which patients to treat, who would live and who would die. And this existential threat to our NHS comes not from focusing too much on coronavirus, but from not focusing enough.

“If we fail to get coronavirus under control, it is the sheer weight of demand from Covid patients that would deprive others of the care they need. Cancer treatment, heart surgery, other life-saving procedures, all this could be put at risk if we do not get the virus under control.”