Coronavirus: Experts say home working best to tackle virus

Using official Covid-19 data from Ukraine, University of Sussex maths experts Dr Konstantin Blyuss and Dr Yuliya Kyrychko found reducing workplace interactions by 30 per cent had the biggest impact on reducing new infections and deaths.

Taking this action will lead to a 62 per cent reduction in infections and a 54 per cent cut in deaths by the end of 2020 compared to taking no action at all.

The researchers found encouraging employees to work from home is more effective in tackling the virus’s spread than keeping children home from school or keeping over-60s at home, known as “shielding”.

The authors believe their findings are applicable to any country in the world.

Mr Blyuss and Ms Kyrychko say keeping workers at home is most effective in curbing Covid deaths and cases because 40-60-year-olds have a high coronavirus mortality rate.

The academics say cutting workplace interactions by 30 per cent could halve coronavirus deaths compared to taking no action at all

The mathematicians also say working from home makes it less likely for the coronavirus to spread from infected workers to vulnerable elderly people.

“If you want to reduce the number of new cases and deaths then it’s workplace interactions which are the key,” said Mr Blyuss.

“Shielding the over-60s and reducing contact between schoolchildren do, of course, play an important role in tackling Covid-19.

“But neither is as effective in reducing overall transmissions and deaths as encouraging people to work from home where they can.”

The researchers worked with the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine to gain access to official coronavirus statistics in the Eastern European nation.

They then modelled four scenarios: reducing school interactions by 30 per cent, reducing workplace interactions by 30 per cent, shielding half of the over-60s population and not intervening at all.

Though the team found keeping workers at home was the most effective method of tackling coronavirus cases and deaths, their model showed reducing contact at school is better at cutting infections and casualties than shielding pensioners.

Reducing contact at school is more effective at tackling the spread of coronavirus than shielding pensioners, the study claims

“This may be because children and young people naturally tend to interact with more people than older people,” a university spokeswoman said.

“The single most effective way to reduce the spread and deaths from Covid is to enable people to work from home,” said Ms Kyrychko.

“We found a 30 per cent reduction in workplace interactions led to a 62 per cent reduction in new infections and a 54 per cent reduction in new deaths by the end of 2020 compared with no additional interventions.”

The researchers say their findings support an August study by France’s public health agency showing 26 per cent of all coronavirus cases in the country arise from the workplace.

Another study published in June using data from Hong Kong showed the biggest contribution to reducing infections in the epidemic’s early stages was employers allowing people to work from home.

• The coronavirus Sussex Crisis Fund has been set up to help those affected by the pandemic. The Argus’s charity and American Express have each donated £50,000 to kick-start the appeal. Grants will usually be for up to £5,000. More information is available at www.sussexgiving. org.uk/apply. To donate visit www.totalgiving.co.uk/appeal/sussexcrisisfund