BARRING a political earthquake, which would be on a par with, for example, Iceland beating England in a football match, by the time some of you late risers are reading this column, Jeremy Corbyn will have been re-elected leader of the Labour Party.

Political nerds (declaration of interest, that’s me for example) will be picking over the figures to see if he has increased or decreased his majority from this time last year; but for the mass of the great British public only one fact is important – Jeremy Corbyn being leader of the Labour Party.

The significance of Corbyn’s election and re-election cannot be under-estimated in terms of its impact on British politics.

OK, polls can be wrong (something we have all vividly experienced in the last year or so) but for what it’s worth here are a couple of poll results that might raise an eyebrow or two.

Whilst Jeremy Corbyn has the support of the majority of Labour Party members who joined after the 2015 election defeat, the overwhelming majority of pre-2015 supported his opponent Owen Smith, seeing Corbyn as an old-fashioned left winger who would never win the support of the British people.

On one level the national opinion polls support this view showing Corbyn trailing badly in terms of public support but in a recent YouGov poll, which asked people who they thought would make the best Prime Minister, whilst Theresa May won hands down, among the 18 to 24 year-olds Corbyn led by 3per cent.

Now it’s true that this is the group that has the worst record for bothering to turnout to vote but it could be that the new style of politics that Corbyn and his followers represent might just be capable of mobilising this section of the electorate – certainly the turnout at Corbyn rallies suggests that something is stirring in the political undergrowth.

But precisely what that something is remains far from clear.

In the United States that stirring has resulted in the prospect of Donald Trump taking up residence in the White House and becoming the most powerful man in the world with, to say the least, unpredictable consequences.

In France the stirring could result in Marine Le Pen, leader of the far right National Front becoming President of France and changing not just the trajectory of her country but of Europe as whole, making it conceivable that France could follow the UK out of the EU.

But all this is speculation. What we do know is that across the Western World people are profoundly dissatisfied with the way the political system has been working, or more to the point, not working for them.

In this country we had the toxic mix of the 2008 crash (worldwide, not made by Labour) and the collapse in living standards that followed in its wake, this, combined with the 2009 MPs' expenses scandal, sent trust in politicians spiralling down.

So is this period of Labour swinging left under Corbyn just a symptom of current dissatisfaction or are its roots deeper?

Those on the left will point to the party’s roots among the trade unions and socialist societies of the early 20th century as the authentic Labour Party.

But the times when the British people have actually put their trust in the party to govern the country – under Attlee, Wilson and Blair – have only come about when the party was led from its more moderate wing.

So it’s an unenviable dilemma that faces party members – a leader whose policies they agree with and whom they trust to deliver them, or someone less in tune with their aspirations and about whom they harbour some doubts.

In fact, it’s a dilemma that faces all party activists who tend to be more extreme in their beliefs than their voters. Throughout the years of New Labour Conservative members elected three leaders – William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard – all of whom appealed more to the membership than to the electorate.

As Labour gather in Liverpool for the start of its annual conference many of its members, and its MPs in particular, recognise this dilemma.

So will the party split, with the majority of MPs and moderate members forming a new left of centre party, or perhaps move into some sort of alliance with the Liberal Democrats?

Predictions about politics amid the current turbulence are almost invariably wrong but let me foolishly stick my neck out and say that despite Corbyn’s re-election Labour will not split, at least not when the current electoral system is so harsh on new parties – just ask Ukip or the Greens.

And this isn’t the only reason why Labour won’t split.

Deep inside the DNA of politicians and the main parties is a great will to survive no matter what.

Labour will survive the election of Corbyn - whether it will prosper is another question altogether.

Ivor Gaber is Professor of Journalism at the University of Sussex and a former political correspondent at Westminster