A Liberal Democrat surge left Horsham with a hung council in 2003, and another tight result is expected four years on.
The Tories took control following a by-election, and go to the polls on May 3 with 23 seats to the Lib Dems' 19, with two Independents.
In all, 110 candidates are standing for the 44 seats available across 22 wards in the district.
This time around the retirements of long-standing councillors and the participation of minority parties could tip the balance against the Tories.
The district is being targeted by both the BNP and UKIP.
If either party manages to draw support from disenchanted Conservative voters they could, with close results expected hand victory in crucial seats to the Lib Dems.
At a by-election in the Denne ward in December, Lib Dem candidate Sheila Dale won with 550 to the Tories' 456.
The 171 votes won by the BNP, which is standing again in the seat, and 40 won by UKIP, which is fielding seven candidates, may well have cost the Tories the seat.
Just two gains would enable the Lib Dems to win control of the council, if the two Independent councillors Sheila Matthews (Henfield) and George Cockman (Steyning) retain their seats and give them their support.
The Lib Dems are aiming to oust sitting Conservative Christian Mitchell and win both seats in Holbrook West.
They are also bidding for a clean sweep in Billingshurst, where three seats are up for grabs.
The Conservatives currently hold two seats in the town, while sitting Lib Dem councillor Geoffrey Lawes is stepping down after 12 years.
The Tories, meanwhile, have their eye on a similar coup in Southwater, hoping to ride a wave of goodwill following the regeneration of the ward. They need a swing of 300 votes for each of the three seats to pull it off, with the Lib Dems' Julia Stainton retiring.
A strong challenge to the Conservatives is expected in Roffey North, where GP and deputy coroner Dr David Skipp is standing for the Lib Dems and the BNP is fielding its other candidate.
The Itchingfield, Slinfold and Warnham ward is another Lib Dem target, with Jean Burnham, a Conservative councillor since 1983, stepping down.
The other retiring Tories are Vivien Lyth in Steyning, Bernard Baldwin in Cowfold, Alan Harris and Michael Jackson in Chanctonbury and Keith Ballard, Neil Butler and Janet Tatum in Chantry.
The other Lib Dem councillors standing down are Barbara Price in Roffey North and Pam Clarke in Horsham Park.
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